[SMM Analysis]

Philippine Nickel Ore Prices Rose Slightly This Week, Domestic Port Inventories Declined

Philippine nickel ore prices rose slightly this week. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore NI1.3% CIF China was $41-43/wmt, NI1.4% CIF China was $49-51/wmt, and NI1.5% CIF China was $56-58/wmt. Prices for Philippine laterite nickel ore to Indonesia held steady recently. The average transaction price for 1.3% nickel ore was $44/mt. The average transaction price for 1.4% nickel ore was $51/mt. Supply and demand side, cumulative rainfall in both the Surigao-Honmohon production area and the Zambales region is expected to exceed 70mm this week, indicating a significant increase in rainfall. Cumulative rainfall in Davao, Tawi, and southern Palawan remained at 45mm, flat WoW. Major production areas are about to enter the rainy season, which will further impact mining and shipments. Port inventory side, as of Friday, October 24, national port nickel ore inventory stood at 10.24 million mt, down 290,000 mt WoW. This is equivalent to approximately 80,400 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, NPI prices continued their downward trend this week, and losses for NPI smelters intensified again. Acceptance of high-priced nickel ore is limited. Ocean freight side, ocean freight rates held steady this week, with the average rate from the Philippines to Lianyungang at $11.5/mt. Looking ahead, as mid-to-late October progresses, the window for large-scale procurement by domestic smelters has largely passed, and prices are expected to hold steady in the near term.

Indonesian Nickel Ore Market Prices Held Steady This Week, Potential for Price Increase Expected

Indonesian nickel ore prices held steady this week. Benchmark price side, the benchmark price for Indonesia's local nickel ore in the second half of October was $15,142/dmt, up 0.27% from the previous period. Premium side, according to SMM's premium data for Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore, the average premium for 1.4% grade was $22, for 1.5% grade was $25.5, and for 1.6% grade was $26, flat WoW. The delivery-to-factory price for SMM Indonesia local laterite nickel ore 1.6% was $51.8-53.8/wmt, flat WoW. Limonite ore price side, the delivery-to-factory price for SMM Indonesia local laterite nickel ore 1.3% held steady at $24-26/wmt, flat WoW.

Saprolite ore supply side, the rainy season in Sulawesi and Halmahera Islands, Indonesia, has basically ended, and overall mining operations are unimpeded. From the perspective of most mines, nickel ore production increased relatively, as mines plan to fully utilize approved production quotas. However, challenges exist in the transportation link; due to increased road transport activity, miners face transportation bottlenecks—more like queuing situations—so despite an increase in procurement volume, the actual delivery speed of goods to multiple smelters is indeed relatively slow. Demand side, Indonesian smelters mostly increased ore procurement volumes this week to prepare for potential ore shortages in the next RKAB cycle. From the perspective of RKAB policy, the new regulation shortening the approval cycle from three years to one year has intensified market expectations of future "ore supply tightness." Although the approved 2026 RKAB remains valid until Q1 2026. Looking ahead, saprolite ore prices are expected to maintain an upward trend.

Limonite ore side, the market remained relatively mediocre, with smelters' procurement demand for limonite ore used in MHP (mixed hydroxide precipitate) production relatively limited this week, showing no significant growth. However, limonite ore demand is expected to strengthen by the end of Q4, supported by stronger downstream demand and potential RKAB-related supply disruptions. Overall, limonite ore prices are projected to remain stable in the short term, with limited upside room.